14 To 1 Odds
Written by Clay Smith
A 1 in 500 chance of winning, or probability of winning, is entered into this calculator as '1 to 500 Odds are for winning'. You may also see odds reported simply as chance of winning as 500:1. This most likely means '500 to 1 Odds are against winning' which is exactly the same as '1 to 500 Odds are for winning.'
- 14-1: $30.00: 90-1: $182.00; 99-1: $200.00; NorthBet pays FULL track odds on Win, Place and Show wager only. A client will be paid out the whole wager minus takeout percentage in the following cases, given that said client has the exact ticket and the track payout of the race.
- Thus, moneyline odds are also commonly referred to as American odds. They can be either a positive number or a negative number. A positive number shows how much profit a winning wager of $100 would make, while a negative number shows how much needs to be staked to win $100.
Idiot’s Guide
That’s right - I will be your guide. The good thing about having an idiot for a guide is that I have to make it simple to understand it myself, which means, hopefully, you will understand it as well.
Probability or Odds
Probability
Probability means the risk of an event happening divided by the total number of people at risk of having that event. I will use the example in a recent JAMA article. In a deck of 52 cards, there are 13 spades. So, the risk (or probability) of drawing a card randomly from the deck and getting spades is 13/52 = 0.25 = 25%. The numerator is the number of spades, and the denominator is the total number of cards.
Odds
Odds seems less intuitive. It is the ratio of the probability a thing will happen over the probability it won’t. In the spades example, the probability of drawing a spade is 0.25. The probability of not drawing a spade is 1 - 0.25. So the odds is 0.25/0.75 or 1:3 (or 0.33 or 1/3 pronounced 1 to 3 odds).
Moving back and forth
To go from odds to probability, simply take the numerator/(denominator + numerator). In the spades example, the odds of 1/3 is converted by taking 1/1+3 = 0.25 - and now we are back to probability. To go from probability to odds, simply take the numerator/(denominator-numerator). In the spades example, given that the probability of drawing a spade is 1/4, take 1/(4-1) = 1:3 odds or odds = 0.33.
Statistical Significance
If an odds ratio (OR) is 1, it means there is no association between the exposure and outcome. So, if the 95% confidence interval for an OR includes 1, it means the results are not statistically significant. Example, exposure to colored vs white Christmas lights was associated with an increase in jocularity score, OR = 1.2 (95%CI 0.98-1.45). Sorry, this is not statistically significant. Let’s just go with white lights…
Use
Either the OR or risk ratio (RR) could be used in many study types. However, only the OR can be used in case-control studies. Because in order to calculate the RR, one must know the risk. Risk is a probability, a proportion of those exposed with an outcome compared to the total population exposed. This is impossible in a case-control study, in which those who already have the outcome are included without knowing the total population exposed.
Risk Ratio
RR is a very intuitive concept. It is the probability (or risk) of one outcome over the probability (risk) of another. Let’s use a study we covered on JF to discuss this concept. Survival was lower in pediatric patients intubated during arrest compared with those not intubated: 411/1135 (36%) vs 460/1135 (41%). So, the RR is 36.2%/40.5% = 0.89. This means survival was reduced by a factor of 0.89 for pediatric arrest patients who were intubated during arrest vs. those who were not. As an example, if survival was expected to be 40%, then intubating during arrest would reduce it to: 40% x 0.89 = 35.6%.
Let’s do one more example. Supination-flexion (SF) vs hyperpronation (HP) to reduce nursemaid’s elbow was more likely to fail. The risk of failure with SF was 96/351 (27%) vs. 32/350 (9%) with HP. The RR was 3. This has a very intuitive meaning: risk of failure with SF was three times more likely than HP.
Odds Ratio
The OR is a way to present the strength of association between risk factors/exposures and outcomes. If the OR is <1, odds are decreased for an outcome; OR >1 means the odds are increased for a given outcome. Let’s look at the examples again and consider odds.
For pediatric arrest, the risk of survival if intubated during arrest was 411/1135 (36%) vs 460/1135 (41%) if not intubated. Let’s convert to odds and calculate an OR.
Intubated: 411/1135-411 = 411/724 = 0.57 odds.
Non-intubated: 460/1135-460 = 460/675 = 0.68 odds.
So, the OR is 0.57/0.68 = 0.83.
Note, this is very close to the RR (0.89) but is a slight overestimate of the effect on the outcome. This is always the case with the OR compared to the RR - it overestimates the effect.
Take the example of supination-flexion vs hyperpronation for nursemaid’s. The risk of failure for SF was 96/351 vs. 32/350 with HP. Let’s convert this to odds.
SF: 96/351-96 = 0.376 odds
HP: 32/350-32 = 0.10 odds
The OR is 0.376/0.10 = 3.7
Note, the OR overestimates the RR, which was 3. Although one could say the risk of failure using SF is 3 times greater than HP, one could not say, based on the OR, the risk was 3.74 times greater. The OR and RR are not the same. What could be said is that the odds of failure is 3.74 times greater.
Risk Ratio vs Odds Ratio
Whereas RR can be interpreted in a straightforward way, OR can not. A RR of 3 means the risk of an outcome is increased threefold. A RR of 0.5 means the risk is cut in half. But an OR of 3 doesn’t mean the risk is threefold; rather the odds is threefold greater. Interpretation of an OR must be in terms of odds, not probability. Again, the OR will always be an overestimate compared to the RR. However, the RR and OR will be similar for rare outcomes, <10%. But the OR increasingly overestimates RR as outcomes exceed 10%. This is easier to understand with an example.
Pretend a new vape, Vapalicious, is associated with cancer.
80/100 people who use it get cancer.
20/100 who don’t use it get cancer.
The risk of getting cancer is 4 times greater in Vapalicious users. RR = 0.8/0.2 = 4
Note how distorted the OR becomes in this example. OR = (80/20)/(20/80) = 16
What if Vapalicious rarely caused cancer?
5/1000 get cancer with Vapalicious vs 2.5/1000 for non-users.
RR = 2.
OR = 2 as well (actually 2.005)
With rare outcomes, the RR and OR are very similar.
Why Does This Matter?
This matters because we often equate the OR and RR. Unwary researchers, reviewers, or news media might report a 16-fold increased risk of cancer from Vapalicious. In fact, there was a 4-fold increased risk of cancer from Vapalicous. Not that I plan to use Vapalicious (or any other vape), but a 16-fold vs 4-fold increase is a gross overestimation of the effect.
What Does the OR Mean?
So, what does an OR mean? Here it is in plain language.
An OR of 1.2 means there is a 20% increase in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure.
An OR of 2 means there is a 100% increase in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure. Or this could be stated that there is a doubling of the odds of the outcome. Note, this is not the same as saying a doubling of the risk.
An OR of 0.2 means there is an 80% decrease in the odds of an outcome with a given exposure.
Summary
Odds Ratio is a measure of the strength of association with an exposure and an outcome.
OR > 1 means greater odds of association with the exposure and outcome.
OR = 1 means there is no association between exposure and outcome.
OR < 1 means there is a lower odds of association between the exposure and outcome.
If the 95% confidence interval for the OR includes 1, the results are not statistically significant.
OR and RR are not the same.
OR always overestimate RR, but…
OR approximates RR when the outcome is rare but markedly overestimates it as outcome exceeds 10%.
References
The odds ratio by Bland and Altman, of Bland-Altman plot fame
Wikipedia aka source of all statistical knowledge
Whether you are new to the world of betting or somewhat of an old hand when it comes to having a flutter every now and again, you will undoubtedly be aware of the sheer range of options at bookmakers like Betfair and Paddy Power when it comes to having a bet.
While putting money on a horse winning a race may sound like a relatively straightforward matter, there is a wide range of bets available. For example, are you planning to keep it simple with a single bet on one race? Or, alternatively, are you looking to take a chance on a larger gamble with an accumulator?
Thankfully, that is where online odds calculators come into their own. These handy tools can make a huge difference to your betting activity, providing you with a full overview of the options available and ultimately helping you to place the bet – or combination of bets – that works best for you.
14 To 1 Odds Payout
In this article, we are going to take a closer look at the concept of odds calculators, how they tend to work, and the key benefits that they can offer in terms of boosting your betting balance.
What is an odds calculator?
On the most basic level, odds calculators are designed to help you understand the implications of your bets and ultimately determine what returns you will receive if you are successful.
Such tools tend to operate in a standard format, with them first asking you to input the type of bet that you have made or are planning to make. This could be anything from a single to a Yankee to Super Heinz or an accumulator. Once you’ve provided this information, you will then be asked to enter the odds on your bet and also the stake that you’ve placed on it. The calculator may also ask you to either enter the odds in the decimal or fraction format, but we will touch upon the key issues related to that further on in this article.
You will then repeat that process however many times is necessary – for example, if you have placed multiple bets – and then may also be able to add information related to Dead Heats or any situation when Rule 4 may have come into play. The latter offers compensation in the event that a horse withdraws from a race after a bet is placed.
Clear benefits
After providing full information regarding your range of bets, the odds calculator will then take care of the hard work by doing the maths and generating an overview of the bets you have made or are planning to make, as well as the potential returns which will be available if you are successful.
Choose your each-way terms with the odds calculator – these vary based on the number of runners and the type of race
As you may have already realised, such tools offer clear benefits to horse racing fans whether they are planning for future races or even checking what their final winnings will be after placing several bets. The ability to input information on a combination of bets is a particular benefit, as it ensures you do not get a headache while attempting to consider the potential outcomes of the bets you have made.
14 To 1 Against Odds
Fractions vs decimals
What Does 14 To 1 Odds Mean
For a great number of horse racing fans, the use of fractions is the traditional way of viewing the odds for the runners and riders, but the use of decimals is something which has grown significantly across recent years, too. The concept operates on the straightforward notion that you simply multiply a stake by the decimal shown and the outcome will be your total winnings. For example, if you place a £1 bet on a horse with odds of 4.00, you will get a return of £4.
While the use of decimals may seem very simple in that respect, it is worth bearing in mind that the concept offers up one fundamental difference in comparison to the use of fractional odds. When it comes to decimal odds, your stake is always factored into the return that you calculate but this is not the case when following the fraction method. In terms of the latter, if you put £1 on odds of 4/1 you will receive £4 in profit but also get your £1 stake back too – so £5 in total. As such, the fraction allows you to work out your winnings, but you will also need to factor in that your stake will also be returned to you as well.
A better understanding
It goes without saying that a huge number of people across the globe love betting on horse racing with bookmakers like Betfair and Paddy Power, whether they are attending race meetings in person, following the action on TV, or online via streaming services. You can get free Timeform tips for every British and Irish horse race and free Infogol tips on Europe's biggest football leagues. However, it is also true that some can find it a complicated world to navigate around and they often want a bit of a helping hand to get started.
Whatever your level of experience, taking some time to gain a better understanding of how the different formats for odds work can be an important step towards making informed decisions on your betting. Furthermore, the use of odds calculators can help you fully understand how specific combinations of bets could put you on the path towards winning big and also ensure you are fully aware of the winnings that you are due.