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Basketball First Quarter Predictions
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First Quarter Betting can be volatile. So volatile that many books won't even take action on it. But I'd like to discuss a few reasons I incorporate half-time betting into my portfolio and find it to be useful and valuable.
First off why are players typically against First Quarter NBA Betting?
1) 12 minutes is an EXTREMELY short period of time. Sometimes what you thought would happen 'early' doesn't take shape until the second quarter
2) Basketball is a rhythm game, sometimes a player will need more time to shake off rust or get on the same page with teammates.
3) The lines can be very tight. There's not enough posessions to create separation early when teams simply feel each other out and trade baskets in the early going.
Very valid concerns, which means you need to be extremely selective. Here's my favorite times to use first quarter betting.
1) A home (or possibly road) favorite laying a BIG margin on the game line.
The Miami Heat were laying 11 points on the road yesterday in New Jersey, and LeBron was quoted in the media saying he wishes they could 'hit the sim button' in these late season games. That signals to me that the superstars will try to build an enormous lead in the early going to get rewarded with late bench minutes. Late bench minutes are disastrous in the second half if you laid a big number on the road.
So why not just play the First Half line?
Sometimes this will work, but remember that the Starters will play nearly a full 12 minutes in the first quarter. Sometimes you don't want to take chances with Mike Miller and Juwan Howard squandering the lead that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade created.
2) 2 high scoring teams that play virtually no defense
The Warriors at home immediately come to mind for a ton of first quarter scoring. It's a function of the amount of shots they take for one and also the amount of those shots that are 3 pointers. Since they are a volume shooting team, they will allow their opponent to also shoot volume shots early on the shot clock. Again, I want the full starters potential from the first quarter rather than the bench players in the second quarter which can be more of a variable.
3) An underdog who's timeline to hang with a better opponent is very short
The Detroit Pistons come to mind immediately here from yesterday's game in Boston. Detroit can normally put together a strong first quarter, but they are susceptible to weak scoring quarters thereafter to fall behind. Again back to the second quarter bench phenomenon.. Detroit is not very deep, so their starters will give them the best chance to play against a superior opponent.
If you sign up for my service I can give you any first quarter plays I make via email if you are interested.
Please reply to this thread if anything is unclear or if you wish to discuss further.
Best,
Brian Fitz
First off why are players typically against First Quarter NBA Betting?
1) 12 minutes is an EXTREMELY short period of time. Sometimes what you thought would happen 'early' doesn't take shape until the second quarter
2) Basketball is a rhythm game, sometimes a player will need more time to shake off rust or get on the same page with teammates.
3) The lines can be very tight. There's not enough posessions to create separation early when teams simply feel each other out and trade baskets in the early going.
Very valid concerns, which means you need to be extremely selective. Here's my favorite times to use first quarter betting.
1) A home (or possibly road) favorite laying a BIG margin on the game line.
The Miami Heat were laying 11 points on the road yesterday in New Jersey, and LeBron was quoted in the media saying he wishes they could 'hit the sim button' in these late season games. That signals to me that the superstars will try to build an enormous lead in the early going to get rewarded with late bench minutes. Late bench minutes are disastrous in the second half if you laid a big number on the road.
So why not just play the First Half line?
Sometimes this will work, but remember that the Starters will play nearly a full 12 minutes in the first quarter. Sometimes you don't want to take chances with Mike Miller and Juwan Howard squandering the lead that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade created.
2) 2 high scoring teams that play virtually no defense
The Warriors at home immediately come to mind for a ton of first quarter scoring. It's a function of the amount of shots they take for one and also the amount of those shots that are 3 pointers. Since they are a volume shooting team, they will allow their opponent to also shoot volume shots early on the shot clock. Again, I want the full starters potential from the first quarter rather than the bench players in the second quarter which can be more of a variable.
3) An underdog who's timeline to hang with a better opponent is very short
The Detroit Pistons come to mind immediately here from yesterday's game in Boston. Detroit can normally put together a strong first quarter, but they are susceptible to weak scoring quarters thereafter to fall behind. Again back to the second quarter bench phenomenon.. Detroit is not very deep, so their starters will give them the best chance to play against a superior opponent.
If you sign up for my service I can give you any first quarter plays I make via email if you are interested.
Please reply to this thread if anything is unclear or if you wish to discuss further.
Best,
Brian Fitz
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