Florida Derby 2018 Predictions
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Blog followers that made a two dollar wager on the exotics with my 2018 Florida Derby (G1) picks and honorable mention, Hofburg, could have potentially cashed in for a total of $823.20 with the exacta paying $50.80, the trifecta paid $309.40 and the superfecta paid $463.00. Florida Derby Facts. FLORIDA DERBY FACTS Grade 1 $750,000 1 1/8 miles 3-year-olds Largest winning margin: Empire Maker (2003), 9 3/4 lengths Smallest winning margin: Six horses have won by a nose, the last Ice Box (2010) Fastest time: Gen. Duke (1957) 1:46 4/5 Largest win payoff: Williamstown Kid (1966) $183.60 Smallest win payoff: Spectacular Bid (1979) and Honest Pleasure.
Nine horses were entered for what’s shaping up to be the best 2018 Kentucky Derby
trail race so far: Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Florida Derby- The Florida Derby Stakes is part of the 2nd leg of the Kentucky Derby Prep Races with Promises Fulfilled the odds-on favorite at 3-1. 2018 Florida Derby Betting Odds Skip to main content.
- A loaded card begins with a wide-open turf allowance race at 1 1/16 miles.
Three contenders in particular will draw most attention in a final prep that awards Derby qualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the Top 4 finishers.
Coming out of his Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes victory, Promises Fulfilled has already cemented his trip to Churchill Downs. Rounding out the Florida Derby’s “Big 3” are Audible and Catholic Boy, both horses who need to hit the board for connections to realize their own Derby dreams.
The Florida Derby has produced three of the last five Kentucky Derby winners in Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017).
Here’s a look at the field with morning line odds:
1. Strike Power, 4-1 (Speightstown — Mark Hennig — 3: 2-1-0 — $224,760 — 20): This horse debuted with a fast sprint race, followed it up with a sprinting stakes win, and then proved he’s more than one dimensional by running second to Promises Fulfilled in the Fountain of Youth. Hennig expects even better in Strike Power’s second route race, though it’s tough to determine the colt’s preferred running style. Obviously, he has natural speed, and the last race proved he can carry it. Expect to see him near the front early. Still an unknown, but worth including on tickets.
2. Millionaire Runner, 50-1 (Warrior’s Reward — Jamie Mejia — 10: 1-1-0 — $30,380 — 0) Since running fourth last out at 72-1, equaling his best finish in his last six starts, this one shows no recorded works. His maiden victory came in claiming company at Parx Racing. Purchased for $1,000, he’s proven a bargain in that respect. His breeders, Brandywine Farm, were also responsible for Gunnevera. Doesn’t fit here.
3. Tip Sheet, 30-1 (Brethren — Stanley Gold — 10: 2-1-3 — $133,080 — 0): He beat rival Millionaire Runner by a half length last out with short-priced Todd Pletcher trainees 1-2 ahead. But while sixth in the Holy Bull, he didn’t finish ahead of any of the race’s big names. Three back, he was part of a Noble Indy-Mississippi allowance clash we'll get to later, more than six lengths behind their duel on the front end. It would take a pace collapse to get Tip Sheet involved here, and that doesn’t seem likely to happen. A toss.
4. Promises Fulfilled, 3-1 (Shackleford — Dale Romans — 4: 3-0-1 — $327,280 — 52): Romans has habitually said since Promises Fulfilled’s front-running Fountain of Youth score that this colt should be undefeated. He fought the rider all the way in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November, popped a splint in the process and still ran third in a key race. But it’s worth noting the trip was ideal last out, with this one allowed to set a nice, easy pace of a half mile in 48.39 seconds before pulling away in the stretch. The one to beat should want the early lead.
5. Storm Runner, 20-1 (Get Stormy — Dale Romans — 7: 2-2-1 — $107,340 — 0): He looked like a live longshot coming out of the allowance score and ran like one in the Fountain of Youth, at least for about a half mile. Stablemate Promises Fulfilled squeezed him along the rail up the back stretch, and Storm Runner dropped from there. His past performances show a pattern of a win, followed by an off-the-board effort dating back to November. He’ll also enter off a bullet work. It’s unlikely a horse that inconsistent will factor here, though it would make for a heck of a story given the $5,000 purchase price. The final 1/16 of a mile could be trouble.
6. Catholic Boy, 7-2 (More Than Ready — Jonathan Thomas — 5: 3-1-0 — $354,000 — 14): Campaigned in part by Robert LaPenta, who’s had prominent Derby contenders before, this colt announced himself on the trail with a commanding win in the Grade 2 Remsen in December. Short on works, he then ran a close second to Flameaway in his 3-year-old debut, and that one looked respectable coming back in the Tampa Bay Derby. Catholic Boy should be more fit for this race. Really, he has to be to move on to Churchill Downs. A major contender coming from mid-pack.
7. Hofburg, 20-1 (Tapit — Bill Mott — 2: 1-0-0 — $35,950 — 0): Mott said “it’s a big reach” moving this one up from his maiden win to Grade 1 company. But it’s not often the Hall of Famer simply takes a shot. Hofburg, a Juddmonte Farms homebred, scored going two turns in his second race, and was stuck with a wide trip. Under a hand ride in the stretch, he re-engaged when runner-up Just Whistle came running on, another promising sign. Hofburg’s final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:45.54. Promises Fulfilled won the Fountain of Youth three races later in 1:44.17. Not bad. Looks like a live longshot.
8. Audible, 9-5 (Into Mischief — Todd Pletcher — 4: 3-0-1 — $287,720 — 10): He moved near the top of Derby lists as a 5 1/2-length winner of the Grade 2 Holy Bull, with Pletcher’s plan all along to train up to this race. Was it just a freak performance last time, or can this colt continue to progress? That’s the big question for a New York-bred, as he hadn’t beaten much before leaving his home state for Gulfstream Park. Audible is a typical pace-pressing type but not the only contender in this field looking for that trip. Somewhat concerning: Audible’s final workout, in which he was beaten to the wire by Vino Rosso. Fits well in the Big 3.
9. Mississippi, 12-1 (Pioneerof the Nile — Mark Casse — 4: 1-0-2 — $57,730 — 0): Noble Indy’s Louisiana Derby victory certainly flattered this one. Two starts back, Mississippi finished just 3/4 of a length back of that rival, though Noble Indy was under a much easier ride. In his last start, this colt came within a neck of topping Storm Runner in another 1 1/16-mile allowance test. This will be the “wise guy” horse, as he’s a $700,000 purchase begging to finally break through. The Florida Derby's just a tough spot for it to happen. Another pace presser with a lot asked here.
Summary: We can all agree that Promises Fulfilled won’t get the same easy trip as last time with Audible and Mississippi added to the mix here. If he wins it, the colt could be truly special. Young trainer Jonathan Thomas has planned a simple campaign for Catholic Boy, who’s working well and will be cranked for the first time this year. I like him to win this race second off the layoff with Audible looking a step slow in the mornings. Should Strike Power continue to progress, he’ll be right there. Hofburg’s entry is a sign of confidence from Mott, making him the longshot to include on your tickets. Also, a bummer for Mississippi's connections to be stuck on the far outside. He scratched from the Holy Bull for the same reason.
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Florida Derby-G1, Gulfstream Park
Race 14, Saturday, March 31, 2018
Distance: 1 1/8-miles. Surface: Dirt. Purse: $1.1 Million
2018 Florida Derby Picks
- 1. Catholic Boy
- 2. Audible
- 3. Hofburg
- 4. Storm Runner
Florida Derby Analysis
Audible is the obvious horse to beat in the 67th Florida Derby, but Catholic Boy could get a great trip at a better price and that makes him the play.
Audible got a dream trip under Javier Castellano to win the Holy Bull Stakes-G2 in his last at Gulfstream Park, but he looked powerful doing it and made hard knocker Free Drop Billy look ordinary. Hell get a rider switch to Hall of Famer John Velasquez today, as Castellano is away in Dubai, but that certainly wont hurt his chances. Audible faces tougher here, but he was running away from his field in his last and the extra eighth of a mile today doesnt look like it will be a problem.
Remsen-G1 winner Catholic Boy made his first start as a 3-year-old off a two-month layoff in the Sam F Davis-G3 at Tampa Bay Downs and was wide throughout before finishing a game but out-of-air second. He made the lead in early stretch in that race, but it looked like he needed the race in the last 200 yards. Like Audible, he should get good trip stalking a forced pace today under top jock Irad Ortiz Jr. who takes off Fountain of Youth-G2 winner and fellow Florida Derby entrant Promises Fulfilled to ride Catholic Boy today.
Ortiz gave out riding lessons aboard Promises Fulfilled in the Fountain of Youth. He stole the lead from inside speed Strike Power early and on the final turn he shut down an inside move from Storm Runner. Both Strike Power and Storm Runner are back for more today and Storm Power will get a rider switch to Tyler Gaffalione. Saez stays aboard Strike Power while Robbie Albarado takes over on Promises Fulfilled. Strike Power will probably have to go to the lead from the inside or compromise his chances again. Storm Runner deserves at least one more chance to redeem himself after being shut down in his last.
Florida Derby 2018 Predictions College Bowl
Mississippi is an interesting entrant at an attractive price. He comes off a neck loss to Storm Runner in his last and in his race previous to that he finished a close second behind subsequent Louisiana Derby-G2 winner Noble Indy. Hed likely need a dream trip to threaten in the Florida Derby Exacta, but he will be a price.
The last horse well mention is Hofburg. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott and slated to be ridden by top jock Jose Ortiz, you have to wonder why hes in the race. Mott doesnt get stars in his eyes over the Triple Crown races like most trainers, and he doesnt run horses in these kinds of races unless he thinks they belong. Still, Irad Ortiz Jr. did take off this horse to ride Catholic Boy. Hofburg wasnt flashy breaking his maiden, but he obviously has some talent and should improve in this third lifetime start.
Once again this race sets up with Strike Power supposedly going to the lead from the inside under pressure from Promises Fulfilled and maybe even Mississippi. Right behind that group will be Storm Runner and Audible followed by Catholic Boy and Hofburg.
Audible and Storm Runner will likely make the first bids on the turn and if they get into a tussle with the Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled the race should set up perfectly for Catholic Boy, with Hofburg as our longshot rallier.
Florida Derby 2018 Predictions 2019
Catholic Boy is the pick to win and place, on top of Audible and Hofburg in the Exacta. Well reverse the exacta for half the amount and take those three to the board in the Florida Derby Superfecta.
Florida Derby 2018 Predictions Ncaa Basketball
Strong’s Pick: Take em to church Catholic Boy!